gh CLIMATE OF RUSSIA IN THE 21-st CENTURY - SPECIALISTS' FORECAST

The landscape of climate changes in Russia in the current century was presented by the researchers of the Voyeykov Main Geophysical Observatory and the Obukhov Institute of Aerophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, at the World Conference on Climate Changes taking place in Moscow these days. Their forecast is based on the estimations with involvement of seven global models of general circulation of atmosphere and ocean developed by the leading climatologists of the world.

The researchers divided the territory of Russia into seven regions corresponding to water collection of major rivers, as each of the regions has certain temperature and moisture conditions. The above regions were analyzed in terms of future changes. The researchers have found out that against a background of general warming the highest temperature rise will occur in Siberia and in the North-East of the European part of Russia particularly in winter. More precipitations will fall also in winter. The highest increase in precipitations is expected for the river basins in the North-East of Europe: the Pechora, Northern Dvina, and in Siberia: the Ob, Yenisei, Lena. Precipitations will also grow in the water collection areas of the Don, Dnieper, Volga and Ural although the increase will not be that significant.

As per the consequences for people, they will be diverse in different regions. In the European part of Russia precipitations fall in winter not only in the form of snow but also in the form of rain. Therefore, increased precipitations in winter will cause decrease of snow mass accumulated by the beginning of spring. As a result, the probability of large spring floods will diminish. In the basins of Siberian rivers, increased winter precipitations, i.e. snowfalls, will entail additional accumulation of snow mass. The result will be the opposite: the snow will thaw in spring more intensely, thus causing severe floods.

The researchers forecast the change of hydrological regime of rivers in the 21st century. Rivers of the North-East of Europe and Siberia will become more full-flowing, drainage of the Volga and Ural will increase insignificantly, and that of southern rivers will essentially decrease.

Approximately 60% of the area of Russia is covered by permafrost, the top layer of which thaws through by the end of summer by 10-20 centimeters in the North through 2 meters at the Southern border. What can these territories expect in the 21st century? The researchers have calculated that the depth of thawing through may increase from 60 centimeters through 1 meter. The impact of these changes on the economically developed regions of Western Siberia and the Far East is subject to separate forecasting.

And finally, the future of the Arctic Ocean. There is a significant difference of opinions regarding this issue among the developers of different climatic models. Although, all of them acknowledge that the sea ice area in the summertime will strongly reduce, some believe that the area of sea water in the Russian Arctic may completely release from ice.

***